Will advanced baccarat data become the next breakthrough for casino operators?

(AsiaGameHub) –   From the Las Vegas Strip to Macau, baccarat is the top pick for the most profitable and in-demand gamblers and high-stakes players. This straightforward player-versus-banker table game draws the largest average bets, and its volatility frequently determines whether casino revenues succeed or fail globally.

In Macau—the world’s biggest casino market—baccarat holds the top spot. Per Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau, the market generated $26 billion in total VIP and mass-market baccarat revenue in 2025. Slot machine earnings, on the other hand, stood at $1.7 billion that same year.

The Las Vegas Strip has a more even split between baccarat and slots, but its revenue still fluctuates dramatically based mostly on baccarat’s performance. In 2025, the Strip earned $1.4 billion from baccarat, according to the Nevada Gaming Control Board. That figure was almost equal to the combined revenue from blackjack, craps, and roulette. Last year, only 24 Strip casinos offered baccarat, versus at least 33 that had the other three games—yet 408 total baccarat tables matched the output of over 1,500 combined tables for the other three games.

However, up until now, casino operators have had limited data on baccarat—especially when compared to slots, which are simpler to monitor and organize. But this technological gap is narrowing, particularly with the rollout of RFID-equipped baccarat tables in Macau.

Last February, all six casino concessionaires in Macau revealed plans to install RFID technology on gaming tables to address monetary integrity issues. Angel Group, a casino equipment provider, has already set up over 1,100 smart-table systems on baccarat tables at Sands venues across the Special Administrative Region.

This new data enables more thorough and potentially crucial analysis by experts such as Dr. Mana Azizsoltani, head of data science at Differential Labs. Azizsoltani presented fresh research on baccarat results and probabilities at UNLV’s International Conference on Gambling and Risk Taking this past Tuesday—research that could be extremely relevant to casino operators worldwide.

“In my opinion, [baccarat] is the most valuable game in the world…It’s all about quantifying risk — that’s what it all boils down to,” Azizsoltani told iGB during a side conversation at the conference.

Analyzing Good and Bad Luck

The study, titled “Quantifying Luck: Determining the Probability of Baccarat Wins Given Player Bet Mix,” delves deeply into betting patterns and their anticipated results. As operators monitor gameplay, they can use table data to make better-informed choices and find clearer answers to key questions—like how to respond when a player has an exceptionally lucky or unlucky run of bets.

“One of the things that [operators] are interested in is this idea of, ‘How do we quantify how unlucky someone’s gotten?’, and this is kind of the motive of this project,” Azizsoltani said during his presentation. “The flipside of the coin is, how unusual is the player’s win? So the use case for player development or marketing could be this idea of losses, what is an unusual, improbable loss? But the other side is, what is an unusual, improbable win?”

Looking ahead, many areas of a casino’s operations can gain from more detailed player-level table data, Azizsoltani noted. Marketing teams can offer better complimentary perks, surveillance staff can more easily spot cheating through abnormal results, and regulators can ensure accurate tax collection and monitor anti-money laundering activities.

Overall, the research showed how effective this data can be for rapid assessments. Azizsoltani stated during his presentation that the model can identify “unusual players” with 90% confidence or higher after roughly 25 to 50 hands played.

Side Bets: A Critical Factor in Baccarat Performance

Side bets—another key focus of the research—are extremely popular in baccarat. Player bets pay out at 1:1, while banker bets also pay 1:1 but with a small house commission. Tie bets differ by location, usually offering higher odds of around 8:1 or 9:1.

Like craps and blackjack, baccarat has dozens (if not hundreds) of side bets tied to specific outcomes. These bets are appealing to operators due to their house edge, but they can lead to large losses because of their high odds. This is particularly true for baccarat, which has a fast gameplay pace and large average bets. Table games consultant Bill Zender told iGB last October that top-tier players can wager close to or over $100,000 per hand.

In his presentation, Azizsoltani noted that side bets make up 6% of baccarat’s total wagers but contribute roughly 40% of casinos’ average theoretical profits. However, until now, deciding whether to add or remove side bets has been a hit-or-miss process. More precise data can help operators understand which bets perform best and the likelihood of specific side bet patterns.

“I think there are a lot of different facets of side bets that can be studied, but I think the main ones are the risk associated with them to the casino, the vulnerability, the volatility,” Azizsoltani told iGB afterward. “And then there’s side bet placement: how many should we put, if we crowd them together, are we going to have less people playing them, what are the ones that are most optimal?”